EKOS poll: Conservative lead narrowing

Here's just another clear demonstration why Canada needs electoral reform and specifically proportional representation. The Green Party is currently polling at 12.6%, and would win four seats in the House of Commons. Meanwhile, the Bloc Quebecois has 8.9%, and would win 53 seats. That's the antiquated first-past-the-post electoral system for you, designed in the 1800s and intended for a two-party political system. We have five federal political parties in Canada. Our national disgrace continues. Anyways, not only is Harper's lead in the polls narrowing, but nearly half of those polled, 48.6%, believe the government is headed in the wrong direction. From the Globe and Mail:

Stephen Harper’s Conservatives would lose 23 seats - mostly from Ontario and British Columbia - and only be holding on to government by their fingernails, under new seat projections by EKOS Research.

EKOS pollster Frank Graves describes the Harper government under his scenario as a “borderline legitimate government.”

Not only that, Mr. Graves says “the numbers are just at the cusp of where both Harper and Ignatieff (Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff) would have a difficult time maintaining leadership of their parties.”

Under the EKOS scenario, the Tories would win only 121 seats compared to the 144 they have now in the 308-seat House of Commons; the Liberals would move from 77 to 90 seats; the NDP would see their seat count increase, too, from 36 to 39. And the Bloc would win 53 of the 75 seats in Quebec; they now have 48 seats.

As well, the EKOS projections show the Green Party winning four seats _ one in Ontario and three in British Columbia, where party leader Elizabeth May has decided to run.

Mr. Graves’ seat projections are based on his new poll, which is just out today. It shows the Tories with 31.4 per cent support compared to 26.8 per cent for the Ignatieff Liberals. The NDP is at 16.6 per cent compared to 12.6 per cent for the Greens and 8.9 per cent for the Bloc.

What is interesting about his latest poll is that almost half of Canadians _ 48.6 per cent _ say the Harper government is going in the wrong direction compared to 38.4 per cent who say it is going in the right direction.

Meanwhile, the seat projections show the Harper Conservatives going from 50 to 38 seats in Ontario; Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals would see the exact opposite, moving from 38 to 50 seats.

Mr. Graves the movement in the seats is based on the shift in regional numbers. For example, his new poll shows that the Liberals have regained the lead in Ontario _ 36.1 per cent compared to 32.1 per cent for the Tories.

The EKOS poll of 1,789 Canadians was conducted between June 2 and June 8; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.