Harper minority seems as inevitable as its demise

The Globe and Mail:

The Conservatives have a comfortable lead in the polls, but – assuming that the Tories maintain that edge – it would only deliver a healthy plurality of seats, not a majority. Having secured a victory, Mr. Harper and his finance minister, Jim Flaherty, would reintroduce the budget that the opposition had already rejected in unison (though not formally in the House of Commons) before the writ was dropped. And now, as we enter the second week of the campaign, the Bloc Québécois, Liberals and NDP have all said that they would vote down that budget, given the chance.

Stack it all up, set events in motion, and they tumble toward a Tory minority government quickly falling and being replaced by a Liberal government propped up by at least the NDP. (Conservative partisans: Please note the lack of the word “coalition” in the preceding sentence. Liberal partisans: Please note that nothing your leader has promised rules out such a move.)

And no, it would not take a coalition to turf the Tories. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff would simply need to convince the Governor-General that he could command the confidence of the House. A coalition, which Mr. Ignatieff has indeed ruled out, would do so. But so would other arrangements, including a version of the 1985 co-operation pact that brought the Ontario Liberals to power with the help of the NDP – then led by Bob Rae.

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