Conservative insiders: majority out of reach

The Toronto Star:

Niagara Falls — Stephen Harper's Conservatives must win 23 more seats in Ontario to achieve their coveted majority, a task that senior party insiders now admit is almost impossible, the Star has learned.

High-ranking sources confide that even with the collapse of Michael Ignatieff's Liberals — and NDP Leader Jack Layton's surge, which helps split the vote in many Ontario ridings — it will be very difficult to make such immense gains in Canada's most populous province.

Party sources say the possible loss of several British Columbia ridings to the New Democrats — and others in Quebec, where Layton is surfing an orange wave — has forced them to revise their projections.

“It all comes down to Ontario and we're just not there,” a source said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the party's internal polling is closely guarded.

Another plugged-in Tory lamented that the political dynamic is “eerily similar” to the 1990 Ontario election won by the New Democrats under Bob Rae.

“(Tory Leader Mike) Harris shook loose the votes from (Liberal Leader David) Peterson, but they all went and voted for Rae,” said the insider.

“Now Harper dusts up Iggy for a year, but the benefactor of the collapsing Liberal vote is not Harper, it's Jack,” the source said, adding there is currently no “seat matrix that gets Harper to a majority.”

But the Tories are concerned that if they target Layton too strongly in Ontario they may inadvertently help Ignatieff — and cost themselves precious seats in the process.

The emergence of many three-way races makes for a complex scenario on election day, insiders say.

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