Why Democrats will not be routed in November

Robert Creamer, Political organizer, strategist and author

Time for the pundits and prognosticators to take a deep breath. Despite all of their dire predictions of Democratic demise, the Republicans have not yet seized control of either chamber and I, for one, predict that they won't any time soon.

Democrats will certainly take losses in the coming Midterms. But the odds are good that they will emerge from the elections with working majorities in both houses.

No one doubts that pulling the economy out of the massive ditch into which it careened under George Bush has, and continues to be, a Herculean task. It is, of course, a task that has been made much more difficult by the virtually unified opposition of Republicans to Democratic initiatives to energize the economy. Two years of economic pain have made voters unhappy.

And this difficulty is compounded by the natural tendency of voters to turn out Members of Congress from the President's party in the first Mid-term after his inauguration.

However, six major factors will work to limit Democratic losses.

1). The voters do not view Republicans as the answer to America's problems. And in fact, a late August NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that they actually have a less favorable view of Republicans than Democrats.

It is true that only 36% viewed Democrats positively compared with 43% who view Democrats negatively. But a mere 30% view Republicans positively compared with 43% who view them negatively.

In the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, voters were split down the middle (43% to 43%) as to whether they preferred Republican or Democratic control of Congress. There is every indication that this will be the Republican high water mark as voters begin to focus in on the race and Democrats begin to introduce them -- and their beliefs -- to their Republican opponents.

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