Forum Research: NDP, Conservatives in dead heat

Vote intentions: Voters head to the polls on May 2. A Forum Research survey says the race is extremely close between a Conservative or NDP minority government.

The Hill Times:

The race is so close, with much depending on splits between the Liberals and NDP support in some ridings, and regional voter preferences, Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff told The Hill Times. 'Voting realignment like this comes only once in a generation,' he said.

The NDP and Conservative parties are in a virtual dead heat as voters prepare to troop to the polls in the federal election Monday, a new poll by Forum Research suggests.

But, while historic levels of support for the NDP continue to hold and rise in some areas, Prime Minister Stephen Harper could be headed toward his third consecutive minority government with the electorate nonetheless set to shake up the balance of power in Ottawa, the survey results show.

The poll shows if Mr. Harper does win government, the NDP is most likely to become the official opposition, with up to 100 seats or more in a historic realignment of parties in the House of Commons. But Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff told The Hill Times the race is so close, either the NDP or the Conservatives could form government, with much riding on splits between the Liberals and NDP support in some ridings, and regional voter preferences.

The Forum Research survey, conducted on Saturday, April 30, gave the Conservative Party 35 per cent support from decided and leaning voters, with the NDP at 33 per cent and the Liberals at only 19 per cent, a morale-shattering low for the party so dominant over the past century.

“Voting realignment like this comes only once in a generation,” Mr. Bozinoff said.

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