Election Day

Ipolitics.ca:

As we conclude Campaign 41 and await the public judgment, a few final comments. Despite a bewildering array of contradictory evidence from the earlier polls, it appears that what was previously thought unimaginable has become a point of consensus. The final estimates of party support including today’s final sample are 33.9 points for the Conservatives, 31.2 for the NDP, 21.0 for the Liberals, 6.4 for the Bloc, and 6.0 for the Green Party.

When we adjust this based on an index that predicts those most likely to vote we arrive at 34.0 points for the Conservatives, 31.6 for the NDP, 20.8 for the Liberals, 6.4 for the Bloc, and 5.9 for the Green Party.

As shocking as those numbers would have seemed just a few weeks ago, they are now more or less stable and undoubtedly accurate. The only real question remaining — and, frankly, this is more a matter of anecdotal curiosity at this stage — is how these translate into the new seat distribution in Canada’s next Parliament.

Recognizing the vagaries of sampling error, vote splitting and other factors, we are going to provide an estimate at the national level that is couched around a somewhat arbitrary band of uncertainty.

When the ballots are counted, we expect to see the following:

Conservatives: 130 to 146 seats

NDP: 103 to 123 seats

Liberals: 36 to 46 seats

Bloc Quebecois: 10-20 seats

Green Party: 1 seat

Continue reading here.

Entire EKOS Report (from Sunday) here.