2011 Canadian election results without fraud

Unfuckwithable.ca:

This is how the 41st general election should’ve turned out if we didn’t have numerous voting irregularities and without the effects of robocalling [source] in each of the affected ridings.

The Crux: There would not be a Conservative majority government.

The NDP would still be the Official Opposition, thanks in large part to its support in Québec, the almost total collapse in support for the Bloc Québécois, and lingering indifference towards the Liberals after Adscam.

Factoring in all of the reported incidences of robocalling and its effects at the individual poll level, combined with other voting irregularities in certain ridings, it is clear that the Liberal Party was the biggest victim, losing 14 seats it shouldn’t have. Close behind was the New Democratic Party, losing 4 seats it rightly should’ve won. (There was no discernible effect on the fortunes of the Bloc Québécois or Green Party.) The 18 seats the Conservative Party shouldn’t have won gave them the majority government they so desperately sought.

It is interesting to note that most of these Liberal and NDP losses took place in Ontario (especially in the Greater Toronto Area), British Columbia, Manitoba, Québec, Saskatchewan, and Nova Scotia.

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EKOS (and especially pollster Frank Graves) was severely criticized and maligned after the election for his (at the time, incorrect) seat projections. Turns out he was much closer to what should’ve been the actual outcome than most people will give him credit for. He was well within the margin of error. Frank and EKOS were right all along — their prediction models saw this coming before it even happened. Kudos.