Hope? Maybe

At a news conference yesterday in Copenhagen, Yvo de Boer, the United Nation's highest climate official, called on the 192 nations participating in the U.N. climate summit starting today "to deliver a strong and long-term response to the challenge of climate change." The U.N. Environment Programs released a study showing that the pledges of both industrial and developing countries fall short of the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions which scientists have called for. But, they just fell short, and the gap is narrow. "For those who claim a deal in Copenhagen is impossible, they are simply wrong," said the director of the U.N. Environment Programs or UNEP, Achim Steiner. I hope you're right Achim. Negotiations to establish targets for the leading polluters to control emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases are currently ongoing. An attempt to reach an agreement on how much wealthy countries should contribute financially to assist poor countries to handle climate change is also being persued.

In the face of climate change denial and skepticism from right-wing, pro-industry morons, de Boer stood firm and defended climate change research, reviewed by 2,500 scientists, clearly shows that humans have fuelled the climate crisi by burning fossil fuels: "I think this is about the most credible piece of science that there is out there." Meanwhile, American climate negotiator Jonathan Pershing said the science and evidence was "very robust, very substantial."

De Boer also said that the summit has to be a "turning point" in the world's response to the crisis, and that emission targets announced in the lead up to the summit have been increasing the chances for success, even if they fall short of what scientists say is required to avoid dangerous levels of warming:

Never in the 17 years of climate negotiations have so many different nations made so many firm pledges together. It's simply unprecedented...it's going to be two weeks of thorough negotiation to try and get the ambition level up and to get the financial specifics on the table.

The UNEP report stated that all countries combined should not emit any rate higher than forty-four billion tons of carbon dioxide by 2020, in order to avoid diastrous consequences of a warming planet. If this current level of mediocre progress is to continue, the report found that emissions will total forty-six billion tons annually in 2020. Emissions are currently at approximately forty-seven billion tons. Steiner has a realistic view and stated that the "gap has narrowed significantly. People overestimate the possibility of closing that gap." He cautioned that the figures included many variables, and presumed that all nations would commit to their promised targets. What also must be considered is that progress can be hampered with the election of corporate and industry friendly, science-denying right-wing governments.

U.N. scientists in a 2007 report concluded that industrial countries should cut emissions by twenty-five to forty percent below 1990 levels in the next decade, while developing nations should curb the growth of their emissions by fifteen to thirty percent. The European Union is getting close to that target, promising to cut emissions by twenty percent below 1990 levels, and even more if others agree (I love Europe but couldn't they lead by example as they usually do?). The Obama administration meanwhile is waiting on Congress to take action (great, figures, leave it to someone else to take the initiative Obama), so the American president has made a seventeen percent reduction offer by 2020 from 2005 levels. Against 1990, experts conclude it is only a 3 to 4 percent cut. Right, change we can believe in.

Developing countries are picking up the pace and are offering clean energy projects and other actions to curb emission growth. By 2020, China has said it will reduce emissions by forty to forty-five percent below 2005 levels for energy used versus economic output. India has offered to curb emissions growth by twenty to twenty percent. According to de Boer, China's commitment alone is equal to approximately one-fourth of the action required to meet scientific predictions that the planet's average temperature would rise no more than two degrees Centigrade (3.6F) above preindustrial levels.