Study: robocalls may have affected election results

Protesters gather and chant at Toronto's Yonge Dundas Square March 11, 2012. An economist says any voter-suppression robocalls during the last federal election may have had a significant effect on turnout.

Postmedia News:

A Simon Fraser University economist says that, if allegations of vote-suppression calls in the last federal election are proven true, they may have had a "statistically significant impact on voter turnout and election results."

In an unpublished discussion paper, Prof. Anke Kessler estimates that a decline in voter turnout due to the so-called robocalls would be between 1,000 and 2,500 votes per average riding, or about three percentage points.

Kessler said this would have been enough to make a difference to election results in five ridings alleged to have been hit with misleading robocalls because fewer than 2,500 votes were needed to ensure a Liberal or NDP victory in these contested ridings.

"I'm fairly confident there is a causal effect from reported robocalls onto voter turnout," Kessler told Postmedia News.

Polling stations with many NDP and Liberal votes in the previous election experienced a decline in voter turnout, she said. This was true in "robocalled ridings or non-robocalled ridings."

What suggests a targeted voter suppression campaign in close ridings, she said, is that voter turnout decline was "harsher" in ridings that were allegedly hit with misleading robocalls.

"One explanation is that robocalls caused it," Kessler said.

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