NDP closing in on the Conservatives!

The Hill Times:

Parliament Hill — Liberals are set to lose long-held bastions in Montreal and Toronto as the NDP closes dramatically in on becoming the official opposition with only four full days of campaigning before the election on Monday, according to the results of a Forum Research poll conducted in collaboration with The Hill Times.

The survey conducted Tuesday night puts the NDP firmly in second place, barely behind the Conservative Party, as its support has continued to climb in regions across Canada following the stunning wave the party and its leader, Jack Layton, have generated in Quebec.

The poll of voting intentions of 3,150 Canadians gave the NDP 31 per cent support nationally, compared to 34 per cent for the Conservatives, who dropped by two percentage polls from the last Forum Research poll on April 21. Support for the Liberal Party, which may have hit rock bottom in the upheaval of the past two weeks, remained relatively unchanged, down to 22 per cent from 23 per cent on April 21.

Mr. Bozinoff’s poll and analysis based on past results in key ridings would give the Conservatives 137 seats, the NDP 108 seats if an election were held today, 60 for the Liberals and only three seats for the Bloc Québécois. If these results hold, the seat projections would have a range of plus or minus 10 seats for each party, Mr. Bozinoff emphasized.

If the voting intentions hold, the Liberals stand to lose at least four of the party’s Montreal fortresses to the NDP, including Westmount-Ville Marie, where former astronaut Marc Garneau is battling for re-election; Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, held by prominent Liberal Marlene Jennings since 1997; and perhaps even Papineau, another longtime Liberal seat where Justin Trudeau, son of Liberal icon Pierre Trudeau, who is struggling to keep a Commons seat. LaSalle-Émard, once held by former prime minister Paul Martin, is also set to fall to the NDP, Mr. Bozinoff told The Hill Times. Incumbent Liberal Lise Zarac is fighting to win the riding.

Continue reading here.

Pollster predicts Liberals’ urban strongholds will turn NDP

Predictions include losses for Liberals Marc Garneau, Marlene Jennings and Gerard Kennedy

Macleans.ca:

Figures from a new poll conducted by Forum Research and The Hill Times show large cracks in the former Liberal fortresses of downtown Toronto and Montreal. The survey of 3,150 Canadians puts the Conservatives at 34 per cent support, the NDP at 31 per cent and the Liberals down to just 22 per cent. In light of the poll, Forum Research’s Lorne Bozinoff projects a weakened Conservative minority of 137 seats, with 108 going to the NDP, 60 for the Liberals and just three for the Bloc Québécois. Among the Liberal incumbents projected to lose their seats are one-time leadership candidate Gerard Kennedy of Parkdale-High Park, former astronaut Marc Garneau of Westmount-Ville Marie and Marlene Jennings, who has held Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine for 14 years. The poll also predicts a loss for prominent Québec Conservative and Minister of Foreign Affairs Lawrence Cannon.