The NDP and Quebec: a blossoming love affair

Forgetthebox.net:

This Thursday Jack Layton will arrive in Montreal for a huge rally in the riding of Jeanne-Le-Ber, one of many seats that the NDP suddenly find itself competitive in as Layton fever sweeps the province. The rally, taking place at 5PM at the Corona Theatre (2490, Notre-Dame O) is a homecoming of sorts for Quebec’s newest favourite son.

Considering that the NDP was at lower than 2% in the 2000 election, it’s almost inconceivable that the party now finds itself in second place to the Bloc Quebecois. The latest Angus Reid poll put them at 24%, and they have been at or over 20% in almost all polls released since the beginning of the campaign. In fact, as polls taken on different days and by different companies bounce around like some sort of electoral yo-yo, the consistency of NDP support in Quebec is startling.

So what accounts for this stratospheric increase in NDP support in this province, and is it a permanent marriage, or merely a temporary fling for my fellow Quebecois?

All indications are that this is no one-nighter and that the NDP is here to stay as a force on the federal level. In every election since Jack Layton assumed the leadership of the NDP in 2003, the party has posted significant gains. From 4.6% in 2004 to 7.5% in 2006 to 12.5% in 2008. This last result was undoubtedly aided by Thomas Mulcair’s by-election victory in Outremont in 2007, a feat the party’s deputy leader repeated in the 2008 general election, proving once and for all that the NDP was capable of winning in Quebec.

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